UNESCO has advised Malta to prepare for a tsunami within the next 30 years, with at least one of its coastal towns having tsunami measures in place by the end of 2023.
The likelihood of a tsunami occurring over the next three decades is "100%," according to UNESCO, pushing at-risk Mediterranean Sea coastal communities to become "tsunami-ready."
Tsunami in Malta
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There is no doubt about it in the Mediterranean: it is not if, but when, according to Denis Chang Seng, program expert for the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and related waters, as per Lovin Malta.
The danger statement issued by UNESCO refers to one-meter waves in the Mediterranean area. These can move and pull automobiles off the ground, while smaller ones can create 65km/h water barriers.
Calculating the impact of an impending tsunami on the island would need socioeconomic data and knowledge of asset values, according to Chang Seng.
However, if Malta is caught off guard by a tsunami, the damage will be severe due to a large number of boats and expensive vessels.
The risk has "already materialized and is not just numbers and theory," Seng added, as proven by the "major" tsunamis that have already happened in Greece and Turkey in 2017 and 2020.
A tsunami does not have to wait 30 years. Chang Seng told the Times of Malta that it might happen at any time, including tomorrow, albeit the dangers in terms of percentage would be reduced.
He was approached after a recent Guardian piece identified Marseille, Alexandria, Istanbul, Cannes, and Chipiona on Spain's Atlantic seaboard as vulnerable and bracing for a Mediterranean tsunami.
However, Bernardo Aliaga, the senior tsunami specialist for the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, acknowledged that Malta, located in the heart of the Mediterranean, is also at risk and that efforts to limit damage are underway.
CoastWAVE, a 30-month EU-funded Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission project, will see Malta join six other Mediterranean nations whose localities will be recognized as tsunami-ready, culminating in the installation of a permanent tsunami-alerting system.
According to seismologist Pauline Galea of the University of Malta's Department of Geosciences, UNESCO and its local partners, the University of Malta and the Civil Protection Department (CPD), are preparing to launch activities that will lead to a national tsunami-ready plan.
Malta does not yet have a national tsunami warning center, thus the university is filling that need.
However, Chang Seng advised that the government consider establishing the correct framework to collect tsunami information from service providers in Italy, Greece, or Turkey and provide scientific recommendations for the CPD to then determine what action to take.
The UNESCO-funded initiative, which builds on a previous Last-Mile effort, trains selected Mediterranean villages to be ready for the possibility, according to IOC rules.
Marsaxlokk, which was chosen as a case study, was on track to become Malta's first 'tsunami ready' area by meeting 12 parameters, including hazard preparedness and response.
