Developing Storm in the East Pacific Might Claim Second Name on the List for Hurricane Season

As of the onset of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season on May 15, one destructive storm has made landfall in the basin. Since Hurricane Agatha's devastating landfall in late May, much of the east Pacific Ocean had been free of troubling tropical features, but the basin's tropical activity began to heat up again early last week when a developing storm was eyed by experts.

During the first weekend of June, tropical forecasters from Accuweather first identified an area for potential tropical development and have been closely monitoring future development in the days since. These same forecasters now say that it is likely that a well-organized tropical feature will emerge in the days ahead.

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski reported that showers and thunderstorms in disorganized clusters stretch from the west coast of Central America to the well south of Hawaii.

These thunderstorms and showers show that the environment is primed for development, but it will take several factors to bring about organized tropical development.

An area of interest typically requires a combination of low wind shear, warm waters, and an abundance of moist, unstable air to obtain organized tropical development. Once these criteria are met, all that is needed is a "nudge" from an atmospheric feature to get development moving.

Pydynowski explained that over the next few days, a tropical storm is expected to spawn along Mexico's southern and western coasts.

Blas, Second on the List

This tropical wave will most likely turn into a tropical system once it enters a favorable environment off the southern coast of Mexico. According to forecasters, development could take place between June 13 and June 15.

The developing storm will most likely gain adequate organization and strength to become a tropical depression, and then a tropical storm.

Blas is the next name on the list of the next tropical storm in the East Pacific. The magnitude of the impacts on land will be determined by where and how quickly this potential tropical system develops.

Pydynowski cautioned that any system that forms could track parallel to Mexico's southern and western coasts, bringing with it heavy rain, rough surf, and strong winds.

Greater impacts on coastal communities will result from development closer to the Mexican coastline. If development occurs closer to June 14, however, the system of concern will most likely be situated farther from the region's coastline, with fewer impacts on populated areas. Forecasters say the potential storm can become a hurricane over the latter scenario.

Another Formation

Pydynowski cautioned that if the potential tropical system manages to move westward and away from land, it may be able to strengthen into a hurricane; however, if it forms and tracks closer to land, the terrain of Mexico will limit its gain.

In addition, forecasters predict that yet another tropical system will take shape late this week in a similar area of interest. AccuWeather forecasters are also keeping tabs on a zone in the western Caribbean Sea for possible development later this week in the Atlantic basin.

Regardless of its level of development, the potential tropical feature could have indirect effects on parts of the US mainland into the week.

AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva explains that as two atmospheric features converge later this into the week, moisture from the tropical entity is expected to be pulled northward into parts of Southwest US.

DaSilva continued explaining that moisture from the system could enhance the start of the North American monsoon season.

The U.S. Drought Monitor data reveals that the North American monsoon begins on June 15 and brings moisture back to the southwestern United States, which is currently extremely dry. Drought conditions are severe to exceptional across much of the Southwest.