Tropical Storm Alex to Soak Florida Before the Week Ends

This first week of hurricane season, a tropical depression or, possibly, tropical storm Alex could form in the Gulf of Mexico, which will soak parts of Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas later into the weekend.

Later this week, a sprawling area of low pressure will form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or the northwest Caribbean Sea. This broad, large low, Central American gyre (CAG), as it is called by meteorologists, could include some leftover spin and moisture from Hurricane Agatha, which made a Category 2 landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast on Monday.

According to The Weather Company, the strongest May hurricane to hit the country since 1949.

Forecast guidance suggests that a tropical depression or tropical storm could form later this week in the southeast Gulf of Mexico.

If it becomes a hurricane, it will be named Alex, the first name on the list for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

Fortunately, strong upper-level winds are expected over the Gulf of Mexico, providing strong wind shear and limiting the severity of this system.

For the time being, the most likely scenario is a tropical depression or storm heading toward the Florida Peninsula on either Friday or Saturday.

Meteorologists explained that it is too early to say which parts of Florida will experience strong wind gusts, minor coastal flooding, and the most rain because the exact track of the storm will determine that.

By Friday, South Florida and the Florida Keys have the best chance of receiving periods of heavy rain. The flash flood threat is greatest in this part of the state, given the locally flooding rain that fell in the area last Sunday.

The remnants of Agatha and the broad Central American gyre could dump another six inches or more of rain this week in parts of southern Mexico and Central America, causing dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

From Pacific Storm Remnant to Gulf Storm

As recently as two years ago, a remnant of a Pacific storm sparked an Atlantic basin storm.

Tropical Storm Amanda formed in the Eastern Pacific Ocean near the end of May 2020, then moved inland before dissipating over Guatemala's mountains. But Amanda's remnant or ghost continued to move north and northwest into the Bay of Campeche, a bowl-shaped bay at the Gulf of Mexico's southwestern end.

Thunderstorms became more organized and surface low pressure reformed shortly after Amanda's ghost reemerged over water. The precursor to Tropical Storm Cristobal was conceived. Over nine days, Amanda, Cristobal, and a Central American gyre dumped up to 34 inches of rain in southeast Mexico; 42 inches in El Salvador; and 26 inches in Guatemala. Flooding and landslides washed over Central America. 43 are reported dead.

The meteorologists explained that this is why Agatha's remnants and the Central American gyre's impact this week are stirring up concerns. June has traditionally been a hotspot for development in the Gulf, Bay of Campeche, and the western Caribbean Sea. On Father's Day weekend last year, Tropical Storm Claudette formed and quickly moved ashore in Louisiana and the Deep South.

Experts are encouraging the masses to revisit their hurricane plans as early as now when the season is about to start.