'800-Pound Gorilla' - Intense Currents at Gulf of Mexico Can Supercharge Hurricanes

Forecasters expect a busy Atlantic hurricane season in 2022 with a 65% chance of an above-average season. There is also a wild card in the mix that increases the risk of severe storms in the Gulf of Mexico this year.

About 14 to 21 tropical storms could become strong enough to be named this season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in its seasonal outlook released today. The average Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, normally averages about 14 named storms. Colorado State University predicted 19 named storms this year.

NOAA expects six to 10 storms that will later gain strength and shift into hurricanes. NOAA also forecasts between three to six major hurricanes classified as Category 3 or higher with winds of at least 111 miles per hour.

Higher Octane Fuel and 800-Pound Gorilla

The Verge reports a troubling development in the Gulf of Mexico. The Loop Current has moved surprisingly far north for this time of year. The Loop Current is a current of warm water which flows like a river in the ocean.

It brings warmer water from the Caribbean to typically cooler waters closer to the U.S. Gulf Coast. This is particularly worrisome news for the season, as hurricanes feed off the heat energy.

Nick Shay, professor of oceanography at the University of Miami called the hurricane a "higher octane fuel" and an "800-pound gorilla" in the Gulf of Mexico.

Shay is concerned that the current behavior of the Loop Current is similar to that of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season - when Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma swept Gulf Coast communities.

Shay pointed out that in 2005, a hurricane trifecta occurred in the Gulf of Mexico. Both Katrina and Rita explosively developed into Category 5 storms after hitting the warmer waters of the Loop Current. Hurricanes Ida in 2021 and Harvey in 2017 also gained strength from the Loop Current.

Loop Current waters are also saltier. The differences in temperature and salinity between the Loop Current and the rest of the Gulf limit ocean water mixing that could normally lower surface temperatures.

As a result, the stream stores heat at much greater depths than the surrounding Gulf. Water temperatures of 78°F can reach up to 500 feet below the surface in the current. Outside the flow, those temperatures typically only reach 100 feet below the surface, which is a big difference according to Shay.

Shay cautions the public that it's too early to tell if something similar to 2005 could happen this season. It will depend on whether storms move toward the Loop Current or eddies, which are large, circling pools of hot water that split off from the current.

Whether the loop current can successfully charge storms will also depend on whether storms form when atmospheric conditions are favorable and wind shear is low.

Strong wind sheer, changes in wind speed and direction, can destabilize or weaken a storm. However, a weather pattern called La Niña is expected to keep wind shear low throughout the hurricane season, a factor that could increase the chances of stronger storms developing.

NOAA also pointed to an "enhanced" West African monsoon influencing this year's Atlantic season. NOAA pointed out in their seasonal outlook, that the West African monsoon, a major wind system, can generate stronger easterly waves that produce many of the strongest and longest-lived hurricanes in most seasons.

Stronger hurricanes are expected to occur more frequently as climate change heats up the world's oceans. Warmer sea surface temperatures than average in the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea are also likely to increase hurricane activity this season, NOAA said today.

There is also evidence that hurricanes are gaining strength at a faster pace and maintaining their strength longer after they make landfall as global average temperatures rise. The warm eddies of the Loop Current also appear to be retaining more heat than in the past, as Shay pointed out. Scientists are still investigating the cause of this occurrence.

If NOAA's predictions for 2022 would push through, it would be the seventh consecutive above-average season for the Atlantic.