Many countries are already struggling with energy crisis while limiting global heating to 1.5C amidst the war in Ukraine, and US presidential envoy John Kerry warns we could face the "worse consequences".
According to the first US special presidential envoy for climate, the longer the war carries on in Ukraine, it will "obviously make staying within 1.5C very complicated" and drive climate efforts on the edge.
"It depends on what happens with the war, where the war goes and how long it lasts," The Guardian quotes Kerry's statement. "If miraculously we can somehow find a way to resolve some of the fundamental problems in the next six months, then maybe we could just accelerate everything together. I think we can make up some distance [in progress on tackling the climate crisis]," adding that the longer this goes on, the harder it becomes.
On the Edge of 1.5C
Many scientists believe that we are on the edge of the world's heating limit despite emissions-cutting efforts.
According to Kerry, the effort to stay within 1.5C has met with an unexpected barrier - the Ukraine war. In addition, "it has met with an unfortunate and dangerous resurgence of business as usual by some parties that threatens the acceleration necessary to get the job done, and it's going to be up to us to push back and continue with the process," he told The Guardian.
The agreement that reached the UN Cop26 climate summit last year which was described as fragile still has a chance of fulfilling its promises, Kerry said. Although it isn't that easy, it still has a chance of holding to the 1.5C goal.
"The IPCC said to us a few weeks ago 'we're behind, it's not getting better at the pace it should be, emissions have gone up, but you still have time to do this." His message to the people is to take advantage of this fact that Science itself told.
"We have to speed up very significantly."
Transition from Dirtier Fossil Fuels
The disruption caused by the Ukraine war apparently forces countries to reconsider their reliance on fossil fuels and switch to production of natural gas, including the US - despite its plan to help allies replace Russian fossil fuels. Although a short-term solution, lower carbon emissions and more efficient extraction could help the country ramp up renewable energy.
"Gas has always been part of the transition away from dirtier fossil fuels and towards this new energy economy," Kerry said. He emphasized the use of gas-fired power plant in the near term over coal or oil "any day of the week", without building out large new infrastructure around gas that not fitted with to capture and store carbon for a certain number of years (also limiting how long such plants could operate).
"For the long run, gas is going to have to abate and live up to low emissions standards just like everybody else," he said. Kerry suggests that the next UN climate summit in Egypt must focus on the G20 countries, the world's 20 biggest economies responsible for about 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
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