Scientists predict that if the earth's climate continues to warm, wildlife will be forced to relocate their territories, most likely to locations with dense human populations, significantly increasing the risk of a viral leap to humans, which could lead to the next pandemic.
An interdisciplinary study team led by academics at Georgetown University describes the link between climate change and viral transmission in a publication titled "Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk," which has been published last April 28, 2022, in the journal Nature.
Can Climate change be the next pandemic?
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The researcher employed the first complete evaluation of how climate change would reorganize the global mammalian virome in their study.
The research focuses on geographic range changes or the trips that species take as they follow their habitats into new locations.
The study predicts that when they meet other animals for the first time, they would exchange thousands of viruses, as per SciTechDaily.
They claim that these alterations allow viruses like Ebola or coronaviruses to develop in new areas, making them more difficult to detect, and into new sorts of animals, making it simpler for viruses to pass beyond a "stepping stone" species into humans.
According to the study's principal author, Colin Carlson, Ph.D., an assistant research professor at Georgetown University Medical Center's Center for Global Health Science and Security, the closest comparison is the threats seen in the wildlife trade.
They are concerned about markets because combining ill animals in unusual combinations gives the potential for this sequential process of emergence, similar to how SARS spread from bats to civets, then civets to humans.
But markets are no longer unique; in a changing environment, this type of activity will be the norm in nature almost everywhere.
Read more: UN Report: Measures Against Climate Change and Global Warming not Sufficient
Using a Phylogenetic model for prediction
To predict probable hotspots of future viral exchange, the researchers constructed a phylogeographic model of the mammal-virus network.
Under climate change and land-use scenarios, the researchers created estimations of geographic range changes for 3139 mammal species for the year 2070.
The researchers projected that climate change-induced animal migrations will disproportionately affect particular geographic regions.
Because of the wide diversity of bats in Southeast Asia, the region is expected to be badly damaged. Because of their capacity to travel large distances, bats are particularly good at spreading new viruses.
According to co-lead author Gregory Albery, Ph.D., a postdoctoral scholar in Georgetown's biology department, this method adds another dimension to how climate change may harm human and animal health.
It's unknown how these new viruses will influence the species involved, but many of them are expected to provide new conservation challenges and promote the formation of new human epidemics.
The study's authors were astonished to see that their projected ecological transformation may already be starting, and even if we are successful in stopping global temperatures from increasing by 2 degrees Celsius, this may not be enough to prevent looming viral sharing.
The researchers suggested that viral monitoring should be combined with biodiversity surveys to detect species range alterations.
Tropical regions, which already have the highest concentrations of zoonoses, are rapidly heating and should be focused on monitoring.
Related article: Heatwave Prompted by Climate Change May Cause Shortage of Christmas Tree This Year
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