Drought in Western US Could Last Until 2030 Due to Climate Change

The Western United States is facing an insurmountable drought over the past 1,200 years, as per a new study. By using different scenarios to predict the continuance of droughts in the future, researchers were able to determine the trajectory of the drought in this region of the country.

The new study revealed that the ongoing drought in the Western states could continue until 2030. Its researchers have attributed human-driven climate change to aggravating the drought.

Although there have been dozens of droughts in the western parts of the US since the year 800, the droughts between the years 2000 and 2021 have significantly worsened due to climate change.

Extreme heat or heatwave from the drought has already affected multiple states in the Western US, including California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Colorado, Wyoming, and New Mexico.

Furthermore, the said natural phenomena have already caused severe repercussions in the agricultural, water resources, and economy of the US-with billions of dollars lost and counting.

Human-Driven Climate Change is to Blame

The period between 2000 and 2021 is the driest period in the Western US for the past 1,200 years. Aggravated by human-driven climate change, the ongoing drought in Western US states will likely continue until 2030, as per the new study published in Nature Climate Change on Monday, Feb. 14.

The new study was conducted by Park Williams, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and one of the authors of the research. Williams and his colleagues claimed global warming, due to human-driven climate change, has made the Western US drought more severe by 40% since the year 800.

Drought Record for the Past 1,200 Years

An earlier study by Williams and his team published in the journal Science in 2020, acknowledged there had been 40 droughts between the years 800 and 2018. The 2020 study revealed that four of these droughts are considered severe.

The first drought occurred in the late 800s, the second in the mid-1100s, the third in the 1200s; and the fourth yet most intense drought was during the 1500s.

In their 2022 study, Williams and his team compared the 22-year drought between 2000 and 2021 with the so-called 'megadrought' from 1575 to 1593, as per National Geographic.

Enduring Drought in the Coming Years

In the latest research, William's team found climate change has transformed the atmosphere over the Western US, leading to severe soil moisture loss. Specifically, the team blamed climate change for causing approximately 42% of the soil dryness between 2000 and 2021.

The team used several drought simulations in their new study; where 94% of their simulations indicate the Western US drought will continue until 2023; while the remainder of their simulations will go all the way until 2030.

Although the results of the new study are not universal and final, the repercussions of the drought in terms of agricultural, economic, and water resources have already cost the US billions of dollars as of 2021, as per Reuters.