New Wildlife Prediction Method Could Help Save Lives

A new computer model technique offers constant, daylong predictions of wildfire growth throughout the lifetime of even the longest lived blazes -- a development that, its creators say, could save lives.

The method combines newly available satellite observations of wildfires with sophisticated simulations in order to predict how far a blaze is likely to reach and what changes in its behavior may occur.

It could lead to significant improvements in forecasting large wildfires where current methods are weakest, according to Janice Coen, the lead author and model developer from the National Center for Atmospheric Science Research.

Currently, tools are able to estimate the speed of a fire's leading edge, but fail to account interactions between fire and weather. "With this technique, we believe it's possible to continually issue good forecasts throughout a fire's lifetime, even if it burns for weeks or months," Coen said.

Putting it to the test, researchers successfully used it retrospectively on the 2012 Little Bear Fire in New Mexico -- a blaze that burned for three weeks, destroying more buildings than any other wildfire in the state's history.

The method is especially useful in predicting sudden blowups and shifts in the blaze. The inability to anticipate events like these is what led to the deaths of 19 firefighters in Arizona last summer. It would also aid decision makers in predicting which of any newly ignited flames pose the most danger, according to Coen.

"Lives and homes are at stake, depending on some of these decisions, and the interaction of fuels, terrain, and changing weather is so complicated that even seasoned managers can't always anticipate rapidly changing conditions," she said. "Many people have resigned themselves to believing that wildfires are unpredictable. We're showing that's not true."

Published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, the study was funded by NASA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Science Foundation.