Drought is Coming! Scientists Predict Severe and Widespread Drought in 21st Century

Widespread drought will become more severe and widespread, according to a new study. Researchers of the new study used model projections and showed that a severe drought on a global scale is possible in the coming decades due to the continuance of global warming because of greenhouse gas (GHG) in the 21^st century.

Global Warming and Prediction

Drought is a natural occurrence characterized by the drying of land and the atmosphere due to the lack of precipitation. The definition of drought is best exemplified by National Geographic, stating "a drought is a period of time when an area or region experiences below-normal precipitation."

Unlike weather disturbances and storms such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and thunderstorms, a drought is relatively difficult to predict, says National Geographic.

Previous historical events show that drought is unpredictable and has no specific season-manifested by its sudden occurrence which can last indefinitely.

It is difficult to accurately know the start of a drought since it may range from several weeks, months, and years before people realize that drought is happening, as per the United States Geological Survey.

A new study confirms that there has been an ongoing widespread drying and increase in agricultural drought in several regions and continents of the world, according to a published study in the Journal of Climate on January 5. The climate prediction suggests that there will be a severe and widespread drought during the remained of the 21^st century.

Ongoing Drought Since the 1950s

Researchers of the new study used the model called Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In this model, the researchers used various factors such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and runoff to approximately determine the location and length of the drought.

Based on these factors, the model yielded results that re-confirmed the consistent drying and significant drought by up to 200% in the Americas, Europe, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and Australia since the 1950s.

As a result, the study's CMIP6 model came up with a climate prediction that a severe and widespread drought will take place until the period 2070-2090 across the globe. The model's result shows that a global drought is likely to affect some parts of northern America, southern America, Europe, the Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, southern Africa, and Australia.

The new study showed that the increasing demand for moisture from the atmosphere due to global warming has decreased precipitation over a number of subtropical regions, as per Phys.org.

Furthermore, the new study attributes that the dynamics between global warming, moisture, and precipitation are the main driver of the climate prediction of a severe and widespread drought, according to Prof. Zhao Tianbao from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and one of the authors of the study.