An oil spill in the Red Sea caused by a decaying ship might have considerably worse consequences than expected, with 8 million people losing access to clean water and Yemen's Red Sea fishing stock being decimated in three weeks.

The consequences of air pollution from a spill vary from 11.3 million person-days for a slow-release winter spill to 19.5 million person-days for a fast-release summer disaster, including an increased risk of cardiovascular and respiratory hospitalizations.

Coral reefs in the Red Sea, investigated for their unusual resistance to seawater warming, would also be endangered.

"The spill may stymie global trade via the crucial Bab el-Mandeb strait, which is 29 kilometers wide at its narrowest point and carries 10% of world shipping traffic," according to research published in Nature Sustainability. In addition, exclusion zones set up for clean-up may cause traffic to be rerouted, and cargo may be delayed as ships that have been exposed to oil must be cleaned."

"The potential of a leak is becoming very likely," it continues. The Safer is single-hulled, which means that if there is a breach, the onboard oil will flow directly into the water. The engine room was flooded in May 2020 due to a seawater pipe rupture, and the vessel's fire suppression equipment is not working. A spill might happen as a result of a leak or a fire.

"A leak might result from the vessel's hull continuing to deteriorate or from a breach caused by adverse weather; combustion could result from the build-up of volatile gases aboard the vessel or a direct attack on the vessel."

The UN has asked the Houthis for permission to inspect the ship, but they want guarantees that it would be repaired, which would cost money that the UN does not have.

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