Scientists: 98% of Emperor Penguins at Risk of Extinction Due to Climate Crisis

New research published today in Global Change Biology adds to the growing body of evidence that fast climate change and an increase in catastrophic climate events like glacier calving and sea ice loss are hastening the extinction of Emperor penguins.

The study, led by Stephanie Jenouvrier, associate scientist and seabird ecologist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and co-authored by an international team of scientists, policy experts, ecologists, and climate scientists, provided critical research and projections for the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS).

According to the research, extreme occurrences influence the emperor penguins' resilience, redundancy, and representation (3Rs). Resiliency is defined as the ability to endure stochastic (or random) disturbances, which may be evaluated by population size, growth rate, and population connectedness.

The ability to survive catastrophic occurrences is defined by redundancy, which considers people's quantity, distribution, resilience, and connectedness.

Representation refers to a species' capacity to adapt to changing environmental conditions and is linked to capturing geographic, genetic, and life cycle variety throughout its ecological context. The 3Rs are crucial for assessing climate hazards shortly since they cover characteristics that contribute to species persistence (e.g., demography, geographic distribution, and diversity).

According to the report, if sea ice continues to disappear at the pace predicted by climate models under present energy-system trends and policies, the 3Rs would be severely harmed, and virtually all colonies, or around 98% of penguins will be extinct by 2100.

Severity of Climate Change

The paper's groundbreaking findings have significant implications for estimating climate change threats to other species. Rapid climate change, according to scientists, is putting stress on species and ecosystems, and the danger of extinction will increase as global warming continues.

Emperor penguins reside in Antarctica's cold coastal regions, but current climate models predict significant decreases in Antarctic Sea ice, which is vital to the emperor penguins' survival. The study emphasizes the importance of increased legal recognition and cautious management, especially regarding the ongoing greenhouse gas emissions increase.

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