Ocean's Fish Population Might be Cut in Half if Water Temperature Continues to Rise

Predicting the worldwide consequences of coral loss on fish communities is a critical job, particularly because of reef fish supply sustenance to millions of people. A new research headed by the University of Helsinki forecasts how fish diversity will respond to coral losses, estimating that future coral loss might result in a worldwide drop of more than 40% in reef fish variety.

The authors conducted a simple thought experiment after fitting the line between coral diversity and fish diversity. They predicted global coral extinction by extending the fish vs. corals relationship until no coral species remained. According to this projection, about 40% of the world's tropical reef fishes are expected to perish if corals are lost. This is a significantly larger loss than those species known to rely directly or indirectly on coral, as proven in smaller-scale studies, implying that coral reef food webs will begin to unravel if corals become extinct. In certain areas, the unraveling is likely to be more dramatic than in others. The Central Pacific is predicted to lose more than 60% of its reef fish, but the Western Atlantic will lose only 10%.

"To disentangle the effect of environment, biogeography, and history on fish and coral diversity, we first devised a statistical model that accurately predicted local-scale fish diversity as a response to several environmental variables such as water temperature, pH, and salinity, as well as coral diversity," Strona explains.

Diversity Forecast

"In addition to providing a means to forecast fish diversity under unique environmental conditions, the approach provided a tool to investigate how to fish diversity may alter in response to changes in coral diversity," says Valeriano Parravicini, a study co-leader from the University of Perpignan.

"This thought experiment should be alarming to anybody who has enjoyed snorkeling on a coral reef or to the millions of people who rely on reef fish for sustenance. However, it motivates people to work harder to protect and repair coral reefs. The advantages would extend well beyond corals to fish and other species that rely on corals directly or indirectly. "Kevin Lafferty, a Senior Scientist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, works for the US Geological Survey.

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