Experts Say There's a High Possibility of First Hurricane Season Developing South of Mexico

Just a little while after Tropical Storm Dolores made landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast, a new tropical threat is coming up just to the southeast of where Dolores was initially detected.

2021 East Pacific Hurricane Season

So far, the 2021 East Pacific hurricane season has been close to normal when it comes to activity level since it started on May 15. AccuWeather forecasters are forecasting what could become the fifth tropical system of the season will take form just offshore of Mexico during the weekend.

Meteorologists expect the system to form in a similar region to where Dolores formed and even impact some of the same places Dolores covered with heavy rain. AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said: "Through this weekend, there is a high possibility for tropical development off the southern coast of Mexico."

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a tropical wave was making disorganized thunderstorms and showers across an extended region that covers several hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala, El Salvador and southern Mexico. Chances of development have been rising through the early week.

Chances of Tropical Storm Occurence

Miller said a region of low pressure is anticipated to develop Thursday night or Friday and propel along or just off the southern coast of Mexico through the weekend. Miller said he has a suspicion that a depression could form as early as Thursday night and it could get to the strength of tropical storm by Friday night.

Landfall is also anticipated to be a little farther southeast than where Dolores made landfall. This can take place as early as Saturday night, according to Miller. Atmospheric conditions are anticipated to be favorable for a tropical depression or storm. Miller said waters were slightly churned up by Dolores, so they are not as warm as they were.

Still waters can be warm enough and wind shear is light enough that this system can advance to a tropical storm and possibly even a hurricane before landfall.

Wind Shear

Wind shear is the alter in the strength or direction of wind with rising altitude or over a horizontal region above the Earth's surface.

If this system does attain hurricane status, it would be the first to get to that threshold in either the Atlantic or East Pacific basins in 2021. Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist said: "When wind shear is high or expands relative to the movement of a storm, it can make the system to lean, like a poorly rooted tree." This leaning effect can also limit strengthening under certain conditions.

Conditions are favorable for a tropical system to strengthen with light wind shear in this situation. Miller said locally flooding rainfall and intense winds will impact southern Mexico. A widespread 4-8 inches of rain can be expected along the southern coast of Mexico, with the great amounts in the mountains just inland.

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