The Year 2100 Will See the Fastest Melting of Greenland's Ice Sheet in the Last 12 Millennia

The ice sheet of Greenland has grown and advanced many times, and it retreated several times as well for many millennia; and a new study showed that by the year 2100, the rate of the loss of its ice would be at its fastest in 12,000 years.

The History of Greenland's Ice Sheet

Presently, the rate of ice loss is equal to the peak it reached in a warm period in the past, which lasted 3,000 years.

The loss of the ice in Greenland has significantly accelerated starting in the 1990s due to the record high temperatures currently being experienced on the planet.

Currently, the melted water has added around 0.7 mm to the rise in sea levels worldwide per year. This rapid loss is compared to the history of the advance and retreat of the ice sheet in its long history, including its severe decline during the warm three millennia-long periods.

READ: Tipping Points of the Current Climate Crisis

The New Study

Researchers have published a report in the journal Nature which revealed the probable fate of Greenland by the year 2100. Their full report can be accessed here.

Jason Briner, New York University at Buffalo glacial geologist, and his research team constructed a master timeline detailing the changes in the Greenland ice sheet encompassing 12 millennia, starting from the Holocene Epoch's beginnings 11,700 years in the past up to the future in the year 2100.

Using Moraines and Simulations

The study authors combined simulations of the ice physics and climate with observations of past ice sheet coverage, which are marked with moraines.

Moraines are the accumulated rocks and dirt that fell on the glacier; it may also have been pushed along together with the glacier's movement. These materials can be as small as powdery silts or as big as boulders and large rocks.

Moraines can be left behind by receding glaciers and can be seen for a long time after retreated. The rocky moraines delineate the old edges of glaciers during ancient times.

Determining Temperatures

For the temperatures corresponding to the ancient advances and retreats of the glacier, fine-tuned simulations of the climate were used and included spatial precipitation and temperature variations on Greenland. This is a better simulation compared to previous reconstructions of its ancient temperatures.

Study Findings

Around seven to 10 millennia ago, a warm episode occurred on Greenland, and the research team estimated that its ice sheet lost a rate of approximately six trillion tons of ice per 100 years.

This rate was the fastest in its known history, surpassed only by the last two decades starting from 2000 up to 2018, when the average rate of loss was comparable at around 6.1 trillion tons lost ice per 100 years.

Implications

According to the study authors, this rate will become even faster, depending on emissions of greenhouse gases in the future. A projection states that with lower emissions, there will be a rate of ice loss of about 8.8 trillion tons per 100 years by 2100. Higher emissions will cause losses of 35.9 trillion tons per 100 years.

According to Briner, regardless of what humanity does, the Greenland ice sheet is going melt faster than its rate during the previous warm 3,000-year episode.

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Tags Ice sheet