The Atlantic hurricane season has now peaked with the arrival of tropical storm Marco and Hurricane Laura, just before the 15th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's arrival in Louisiana on August 29.
Katrina's Legacy
Katrina is among the worst hurricanes ever to hit the United States. The 2005 hurricane season has the most recorded names of storms, exhausting the list of planned names, after which forecasters needed to use Greek alphabet names for backup. If storms continue with the current trend until the end of November, this could be the case once more.
The storms pose a deadly threat because the Bermuda high, a high-pressure area, pushed westward, which increases the likelihood that hurricanes will hit the Gulf or East coasts.
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Marco and Laura
Marco's threat is already gone, even as it brings heavy Gulf Coast rains. On the other hand, Laura poses a more significant risk due to its potential to hit western Louisiana and eastern Texas in the form of an intense hurricane.
Two storms so close together are unusual, and it may be due to climate change affecting the atmosphere concerning risks and trends coming from hurricanes.
According to University of Georgia professor and meteorologist J. Marshall Shepherd, this is not unusual in the Pacific or Atlantic. Still, it is quite uncommon in the Gulf of Mexico. Two cones of uncertainty crossing paths within mere days of each other are bizarre.
The Role Played by Climate Change
Shepherd says that warmer waters in the area are to be expected from climate change. Superwarm waters, especially ocean waters, can fuel Laura. All this warmth will eventually go to the atmosphere, and hurricanes are one means to do so.
He adds that there is substantial evidence of climate change slowing down storms, strengthening them even more, and causing more rainfall. In some instances, they stall out, just as Hurricanes Florence and Harvey did.
Intense storms also exhibit a northward shift, as shown by this season's storm formations in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. If a Category 3 or higher storm comes, just as Hurricane Laura will likely become, this trend of rapidly intensifying and intense winds will continue.
READ ALSO: Tropical Storm Laura Leaves 13 Dead in the Caribbean, Hurricane Marco Weakens but Still a Threat
Understanding Hurricanes in Light of Climate Change
Shepherd says track forecasting has improved in the 15 years since Katrina. Sadly, intensity forecasts are still unpredictable, which is especially tricky with Laura and Marco. The physics involved in creating the models for this is occurring at scales that scientists can not yet measure.
A 2016 report on extreme weather events attribution within a climate change context found how excessive rainfall, heatwaves, lack of cold events, and some drought can be highly attributed to the effects of climate change. With what is known now, Shepherd says the attribution signal for hurricanes has moved up in scale.
These findings could help in coping with and preparing for the rest of the hurricane season, future ones, and mitigating the effects of tropical storms such as Marco and Laura.
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