Scientists’ Prediction: Without a Vaccine, U.S. May Need to Endure Social Distancing Until 2022

The U.S. may face the prospect of having to endure social distancing, which include measures such as school closures and stay-at-home orders, until the year 2022. This is a projection announced by researchers last Tuesday, which they say may be needed if no vaccine will become available soon.

According to Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health researchers, intermittent distancing will have be required up to 2022 unless the nation's critical care capability is substantially increased or a vaccine or treatment becomes available. The add that even with apparent elimination of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, surveillance have to be maintained, as there is still the possibility of its resurgence up to 2024.

The research team used the facts currently known about the Covid-19 virus as well as other coronaviruses to simulate possible scenarios from the pandemic. They published their report last Tuesday in the journal Science. Their findings have directly contradicted the research being presented by the President and White House which suggests that the pandemic will be over by summer.

In contrast, the team's projections indicate that the novel coronavirus will come back quickly after the restrictions have been lifted. Harvard School of Public Health professor of epidemiology and study author Dr. Marc Lipsitch has told reporters that if the method of intermittent distancing is the chosen approach to combat the virus, then it may have to be done for many years, which would be very long.

Challenges include finding reliable tests to detect people with antibodies, to establish immunity levels conferred by prior infection; determining how long this immunity lasts; and determining the capability of already-overstretched health care systems to conduct widespread and reliable antibody testing in the general public.

 Immunity certificates have also been proposed in the U.K., and controversy ensued regarding the possibility that they may establish a sort of two-tiered society, where people who have the certificates may return to their normal lives, while the rest will remain on lockdown.

 The researchers are aware how prolonged, even intermittent, distancing are likely to cause profound negative educational, social, and economic effects. They are hoping that their research will help in identifying likely trajectories that the pandemic may take under various alternative approaches; identifying complementary ways of fighting it; and spurring ideas on new ways control it.

 Although cases in the U.S. continue to soar, social distancing seems to have a positive effect. It is currently among our most powerful ammunition against the COVID-19 disease, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Robert Redfield. He added that we can limit the effect of the virus by maximizing social distancing.

 Many states have already implemented stay-at-home orders and only allowed essential tasks and errands. Violation incurred penalties that vary depending on the state. For instance, Maine imposes a maximum of six months imprisonment and a maximum fine of $1,000. In Florida, an arrest was made for a pastor who continued to conduct large church services; he was charged with unlawful assembly as well as violating public health emergency rules, which are both 2^nd degree misdemeanors.

 East and West coast states have announced the forming of regional pacts regarding the reopening of economies after the stay-at-home orders have expired. States such as New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island are each planning to assign an economic and public health official to a yet-to-be-formed regional working group. The West Coast states of Washington, Oregon, and California have also announced joining forces in bringing an incremental end to the stay-at-home orders.