Warming Trend Expected to Continue Through to 2020

The global warming trend with temperatures again likely to rise more than one degree above pre-industrial levels will continue next year.

Climate forecasts for 2020, according to the Met Office, will likely be 1.11ºC warmer than the average between 1850-1900, bearing what meteorologists said was the "clear fingerprint" of human-induced global heating.

The year ahead is about to increase the series of the warmest years on record to six in a row. Greenhouse gas emission is the most influential factor that caused an increase in temperature, according to scientists.

Back in 2015, the world first broke through one degree above pre-industrial temperatures. A strong El Niño made a significant difference, which also made 2016 one of the warmest years on record. Each year since then has seen temperatures on the brink of or above the mark.

This weather phenomenon would increase sea surface temperatures within the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and is related to a variety of impacts worldwide, including the general levels of global warming.

The probability of having a strong El Niño in 2020 is low, according to the Met Office. The worldwide average temperature in 2020, according to the forecasts, will be in the range of 0.99ºC to 1.23ºC with a central estimate of 1.11ºC. The critical factors for the phenomenon would be emissions of CO2 and other warming gases, the researchers said.

Professor Adam Scaife, the Met Office head of long-range prediction, noted that natural events - like El Niño-induced warming within the Pacific - affects the climate system. "But in the absence of El Niño, the forecast [provides us an obvious] picture of the strongest factor causing temperatures to rise - [which are the] greenhouse gas emissions," Scaife said.

On the rise

Carbon dioxide emissions this year, according to researchers, have slightly increased despite a drop in coal use. Scientists said the emissions have a direct bearing on temperatures.

The Global Carbon Project's annual analysis of emission trends recommends that carbon dioxide would increase by 0.6 percent this year due to continuing strong growth in oil and gas consumption.

World Meteorological Organization's (WMO's) provisional figures, which was released earlier this month, suggested that 2019 is on course to be the second or third warmest year ever. The years 2015 to 2019, if those numbers hold, would mean that Earth had the warmest five-year period on record.

The Met Office expressed their confidence in their prediction for 2020 based on what happened in previous years.

Dr Doug Smith, a Met Office research fellow, said the forecast for next year would make 2020 in the sixth warmest year on record, which would all have started in 2015. "All of [those] years have been around 1.0C [hotter] than the pre-industrial [years]," Smith added.

There would be a renewed concern from scientists that the world is on track to breach the 1.5C limit that many researchers say is the threshold of increasingly dangerous impacts with temperatures staying near to the one-degree mark.

The year 2020 would see a significant push to get countries to ramp up their plans to ensure the world stays below the 1.5C value.