Tropical Storm Expected to Form on Friday in Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Depression 16, and perhaps Tropical Storm Nestor, continue to move across the Gulf of Mexico. It has an 80 percent chance of development over the next 24 hours. 

Dan Kottlowski, an AccuWeather hurricane expert, said tropical weather might enter on Saturday as the system travels northeastward over warm waters of the Mexican Gulf. The winds, whose speed is approximately 39 mph or higher, are likely gusting to tropical storm force.

The National Hurricane Center started issuing advisories for Potential Tropical Depression 16 at 10 a.m. CDT Thursday as the system begins to become more organized. Tropical storm warnings are in force toward the northern Gulf Coast of the United States. Florida Panhandle and northwestern Florida likewise received a storm surge warning.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said on his official Twitter account that state officials were closely monitoring the developing system. He urged residents to prepare for power disruption and the chance of flooding.

Significant wind shear and dry air blown into the storm from the west may be the only factors that limit the system from developing into a powerful tropical storm or hurricane before it reaches the United States. Strong winds from the west and southwest will force the storm to quickly move along and limit its exposure to warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

The storm is then likely to continue to move northeastward across southern Georgia and then along the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts over the weekend.

Kottlowski said the system might bring heavy rainfall, coastal storm surge, and damaging winds to areas of Florida Panhandle and northwestern Florida on Saturday morning. Strong gusts are likely along the Carolina and Virginia coasts to form on Saturday to early Sunday. 

Similarly, a storm surge of several feet is likely expected in Florida's coastline area. This part of the Florida coast serves to trap and funnel water inland during approaching storms. The storm, however, does not have to be tropical in nature for significant impact to occur while these conditions will be highly dependent on the strength and exact track of the storm, the storm does not have to be tropical in nature for significant impact to occur.

Seas and surf may develop over the Gulf of Mexico into the weekend with a most notable increase in waves and frequency and strength of rip currents throughout the Florida Gulf Coast. It is also advised for the small boats to remain in the port from Friday to Saturday.

Drenching rain and localized flooding will be the main impact of the storm as it moves along over the Southeastern states. Urban flooding can occur even though much of the Southeast states could stand more rain due to ongoing drought conditions.

There have been 15 tropical depressions, 13 tropical storms, five hurricanes, and three major hurricanes tallied in the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season as of October 16. Kottlowski said they might be significant factors for tropical development during the latter part of October to early November in terms of the long-range outlook for the Atlantic Basin.

He added that tropical activity completely shuts down after the Gulf of Mexico system this week. Localized moderate damage is predicted as coastal flooding may unfold while the system is not expected to cause extreme damage. 

Meteorologists are advising the residents to be alert on the latest storm's strength and projected track. They added there is a small chance of the storm evolving to a significant hurricane.