Threat of Tropical Storm in Gulf of Mexico is Growing

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Scattered low-pressure areas located over parts of the Mexican Gulf may strengthen into a tropical storm. It will bring soaking rain, winds, and tidal waves to parts of the Southeast over the weekend.

According to the National Hurricane Center, there is a 50% chance of development over the next five days and was moving over the Mexican state of Oaxaca. The probability of storm movement has developed since early Wednesday. 

The pressure area could transform into a tropical or subtropical depression. It will be called "Nestor" if it becomes a tropical cyclone. The system, however, won't last long regardless of how meteorologists would classify it.

By Saturday, Oct. 19, the strong winds are expected to whip the system to the northern Gulf Coast and inland over the Southeast area. However, the winds over the north of the Mexican Gulf would likewise produce a blow against the significant intensification of the tropical cyclones. 

Potential Impacts

Wind, waves, and surge impacts depend on the size and strength of the Gulf system. It remains uncertain given the tropical cyclone hasn't formed in the Gulf yet.

The southwest winds ahead of the system might generate swells that are expected to reach the northern and eastern Gulf Coasts by Friday, Oct. 18. These swells could cause high currents and may continue through Saturday.

However, the rainfall forecast is clearer. Thunderstorms are expected to arrive on the Gulf Coasts on Friday. Heavy rains are expected on Friday evening and will linger to the Southeast parts until Sunday.

Northern Gulf Coast to Virginia areas could pick up a few inches of rain, too. Higher amounts are likely where the clusters of heavy rain will continue for a few hours. The rain could be helpful, given that the flash drought has likewise affected the country.

Western Gulf Development Unusual This Late

The Gulf of Mexico is certainly not new to tropical developments. However, it's unusually late for the season, according to tropical scientists.

Brian McNoldy, a scientist at the University of Miami, told Weather.com that only seven named storms since the 1960s have been formed in the Gulf of Mexico after October 1.

Tropical Storm Josephine, one of the tropical storms, came ashore in Apalachee Bay in Florida on October 7, 1996. It had maximum winds of 70 miles per hour, just a cut below hurricane status.

According to the National Hurricane Center's report on Josephine, its storm surge has the most striking impact. Tidal waves of up to 9 feet were reported in Florida. Tides of 4 to 6 feet flooded the roads and buildings in the Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties.

Hurricane Michael spun off the east side of the Mexican Gulf in October 2018 and was the only U.S. Category 5 landfall in the area. Hurricane Nate also formed in the eastern side and came along the northern Gulf Coast in October 2017. Central America was severely affected by Nate where the widespread flooding and mudslides killed 44 people.