NOAA Still Predicts 'Above Normal' Hurricane Season, but Narrows its Hurricane Forecast

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has made revisions to its 2013 hurricane season forecast, saying there will be slightly fewer named storms and hurricanes than it predicted at the beginning of the hurricane season in May, but that the likelihood of an above-normal season of hurricane activity remains high.

NOAA's updated predictions still call for a 70 percent chance of above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean this season, but the margins for the range of predicted hurricane activity have narrowed slightly due to the lack of hurricanes in June and July, updated predictions that La Niña is less likely to develop and further enhance the season, and to account for the more conservative models used to predict the hurricane season.

Despite the 2013 hurricane season's tame beginnings, NOAA still contends the season is shaping up to be above normal with the possibility of becoming "very active."

Four named storms have already been produced this season and the peak of the season -- August to October -- has yet to come.

"Our confidence for an above-normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster atNOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. "Also, two of the four named storms to-date formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, which historically is an indicator of an active season."

NOAA's revisions predict 13-19 named storms, six to nine hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes. Each of these predictions is narrowly less than the May predictions. A normal year has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The agency does not make predictions of whether the storms will make landfall.

"Make no bones about it, those ranges indicate a lot of activity still to come," Bell told the Associated Press. "We're coming to the peak of hurricane season now."

Bell said that four named storms in June and July is more than normal; usually those months just see one or two named storms.

"The peak of the hurricane season is almost upon us and it's important to remain prepared for hurricanes through November," Joe Nimmich, FEMA Associate Administrator for Response and Recovery, said in a statement.

"Make sure to review your family emergency plan, check that your emergency kit is stocked and consider insurance options. Learn more about how you can prepare for hurricanes at www.ready.gov/hurricanes."