The Sinking State: Maryland Could See Average Sea Levels Rise Six Feet by 2100

Maryland should prepare for average sea levels to rise by as much as 2 feet by 2050, according to a report led by the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science.

With its 3,100 miles of tidal shoreline and low-lying lands, Maryland is one of the most vulnerable states to sea-rise and carries with it a history of residents contending with decreasing land. Over the years, shorelines have eroded and low-relief lands and islands, some of which were once inhabited, have long since been inundated.

In the past, much of this, the scientists explain, had to do with Earth's adjusting to the melting of large masses of ice following the last glacial period. However, since onslaught of the 20th century, the rate of rise of the average level of tidal waves has increased at least partially as a result of global warming.

Furthermore, the researchers argue, scientific evidence offers a compelling argument that Earth's climate will continue to warm, causing its oceans to rise even more rapidly.

For this reason, the independent report recommends that, while their best guess places the average rise in sea level at 1.4 feet, it is unlikely that it will be less than 0.9 feet and that the state should anticipate, for the safety of its citizens, a 2.1 foot increase within the next few decades.

These estimates were based on a number of variables, including thermal expansion of ocean volume as a result of warming; the melting of glaciers, Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets; changing ocean dynamics such as the slowing of the Gulf Stream and vertical land movement.

Additionally, should the world continue on the path it's currently in terms of pollution, the researchers warn that sea levels could rise by nearly 6 feet by 2100.

"While there is little we can do now to reduce the amount of sea-level rise by the middle of the century, steps taken over the next 30 years to control greenhouse gas emissions and stabilize global temperatures will largely determine how great the sea level rise challenge will be for coastal residents at the end of this century and beyond," Donald Boesch, president of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science and chair of the panel that assembled the report, said in a press release.

According to Joseph Gill, secretary of the Maryland Department of Natural Resources, impacts associated with sea level rise are already apparent along the state's coast, as seen in the loss of islands within the Chesapeake Bay and visible changes to wetland habitats along its low-lying eastern shore.

For this reason, the state government has established the CoastSmart Communities Program dedicated to "offering on-the-ground expertise, planning guidance, training, tools and financial assistance to help others in the state plan, prepare and adapt," according to Boesch.

Meanwhile, the Maryland Department of Environment is working with the Federal Emergency Management Agency to update Flood Insurance Rate maps for communities within the state, according to those behind the report. The revised maps represent the first update in the coastal areas of Maryland in 25 years and work to both confirm increases and decreases in the 100-year flood elevations since then.

"MDE is working with seventeen Maryland coastal communities to go through the mapping process, which requires the communities to update their local floodplain management ordinances before the revised maps become effective," said Maryland Department of the Environment Secretary Robert M. Summers. "Many communities choose to better prepare themselves by adopting higher freeboard elevations or additional safety requirements for new or substantially improved structures, which could lead to reductions in flood insurance."