Deaths Due to Extreme Heat Could Rise by 90% in Manhattan: A Study

Death due to extreme temperatures brought on by climate change could rise as much as 30 percent in Manhattan by the 2080s, according to a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

In particular, the scientists found that death caused by hotter temperatures could increase by 90 percent in that same time period, and even as much as 20 percent within the next decade.

For this reason, the island will likely see a decrease in cold-related deaths; though, the researchers warn, temperature-related mortality rates are still likely to increase altogether.

Researchers came to this conclusion using temperature projections from 16 global climate models, down-scaling them to Manhattan and applying the results to two different scenarios: one that assumed rapid global population growth and few efforts to limit emissions, and another assuming slower growth and technological changes to decrease emissions by 2040.

As a baseline for mortality, the researchers used the 1980s, during which an estimated 370 people living in Manhattan died from overheating and 340 from cold.

“This serves as a reminder that heat events are one of the greatest hazards faced by urban populations around the globe,” co-author Radley Horton of the Earth Institute’s Center for Climate Systems Research said in a press release.

For examples of what’s to come, Horton suggested looking to the 2010 heat wave that killed some 55,000 people living in Russia, or the 2003 wave in central and western Europe that claimed some 70,000 lives.

As evidence of the increased temperatures are the series of records set by Manhattan throughout recent years, including 2012 ranking as the warmest year on record.

Furthermore, records taken every day in Central Park from 1901 to 2000 show an increase of 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit in the average monthly temperature, a substantially higher trend than that seen in other areas of the world.

The reason, the researchers believe, is likely due to cities' tendency to trap heat in buildings and the pavement during the day, which is then released at night.

Overall, while projections for the future may vary, all of them foresee a steep future average increase in the realm of 3.3 to 4.2 degrees Fahrenheit by the 2050s and anywhere from 4.3 to 7.1 degrees Fahrenheit by the 2080s.