Despite the seeming widespread effects of climate change, global surface temperatures have warmed little between 1998 to 2008 – a trend, according to a new study, that may reduce predicted warming in the coming decades.
For example, while projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in 2007 placed short-term temperature rise in the realm of 1 to 3 degrees Celsius, the new analysis reduces that number to 0.9 to 2 degrees Celsius.
“The hottest of the models in the medium-term, they are actually looking less likely or inconsistent with the data from the last decade alone,” Alexander Otto, a professor at the University of Oxford and lead author of the study, told BBC News.
Furthermore, he explained, “The most extreme projections are looking less likely than before.”
Overall, the authors calculate that global average temperatures will warm 20 percent slower than previous projections.
However, the scientists warn that their work only serves to validate previous estimates of the situation long-term.
For example, the IPCC reported five years ago that climate sensitivity was in the range of 2 to 4.5 degrees Celsius while the recent analysis puts it between 0.9 to 5 degrees Celsius.
The reason for the lower short-term estimates is the ocean's absorption of the heat from the last decade where it's currently being stored, according to the researchers.
This is not a theory that goes uncontested, however.
“There is other research out there pointing out that this storage may be part of the natural cycle that will eventually reverse, either due to El Nino or the so-called Atlantic Multidecadel Oscillation, and therefore may not imply what the authors are suggesting,” Steven Sherwood of the University of South Wales told the BBC.
Ultimately, when asked whether people should feel comfort in the new analysis, Otto replied in the negative.
“None,” he said. “No comfort whatsoever.”
© 2024 NatureWorldNews.com All rights reserved. Do not reproduce without permission.
