Coral Reefs Could Be Saved Yet, Local and Global Action Required: A Study

Coral reefs may be declining, but the window to avoid complete collapse of the ecosystems isn’t closed yet, according to a study published in the journal Current Biology on May 9.

“The good news is that it does seem possible to maintain reefs – we just have to be serious about doing something,” reports Peter Mumby of the University of Queensland and University of Exeter.

The analysis is based on the findings of computer model of how reefs work developed over the course of two years and builds on hundreds of studies conducted over the last 40 years, according to the a press release on the report.

The researchers then combined their reef model with climate change models in order to develop predictions regarding the balance between the forces affecting the growth of reefs’ complex calcium carbonate structures as well as elements such as hurricanes and erosion, which are both known to shrink them.

In all, the model shows that by keeping the carbonate budget in the black for the next 100 years at least, coral reefs may have a fighting chance, though only through effective local protection and assertive action on greenhouse gases.

“Business as usual isn’t going to cut it,” Mumby said. And while some argue that climate change is far too massive for local management to make a difference, the researchers believe their study proves that viewpoint as “wrongheaded.”

Ultimately, the scientists argue, the future of the reefs affects much more than snorkelers.

“People benefit from reefs’ having a complex structure – a little like a Manhattan skyline, but underwater,” Mumby said. “Structurally complex reefs provide nooks and crannies for thousands of species and provide the habitat needed to sustain productive reef fisheries.”

Should the reefs disappear, the scientists warn, the hundreds of million of people who depend directly on the reefs for food, livelihood and building materials will suffer. Furthermore, shores that currently benefit from the presence of reefs as natural breakwater will lose that added protection.

“If it becomes increasingly difficult for people in the tropics to make their living on coral reefs, then this may well increase poverty,” Emma Kennedy, one of the study’s authors, said.

The study was funded by the European Union project Future of Reefs in a Change Environment, or FORCE.