Climate Change Could Mean More Turbulence: A Study

As long as climate change keeps its course, planes may have a harder time doing so.

In a study published in the journal Nature, scientists explained how clear-air turbulence within the transatlantic flight corridor could increase by 10 to 40 percent in median strength and 40 to 170 percent in the frequency of moderate-or-greater turbulence, particularly during the winter.

"'Moderate or greater turbulence' has a specific definition in aviation," the study's co-author, Paul Williams, told the BBC. "It is a turbulence that is strong enough to bounce the aircraft around with an acceleration of five meters per second squared, which is half of a g-force. For that, the seatbelt sign would certainly be on; it would be difficult to walk; drinks would get knocked over; you'd feel strain against your seatbelt."

Researchers estimate the increase will take effect by the mid-century and, as Williams explained, there's more than comfort to be concerned about.

"Journey times may lengthen and fuel consumption and emissions may increase," states the study's abstract, only adding to costs for companies, passengers and the environment.

In some cases, turbulences have even been the cause of injury and the cost of damage to planes is, according to the study, in the tens of millions, though BBC places it closer to $150 million.

In order to come up with these estimates, Williams, along with Manoj M. Joshi from the University of East Anglia's School of Environmental Sciences, enlisted the help of a supercomputer, which they used to simulate projected changes to air currents, including the fast-moving jet stream.

Today, the area the researchers studied sees an estimated 600 flights each day as airlines work around the clock to bustle people and their stuff between Europe and the Americas.

The study is the first to examine the effects of climate change on aviation.