For Better Weather Forecasts, Look Down

When it comes to predicting the weather, meteorologists look to the sky to determine if there's a chance of rain or sunshine. But now new research is suggesting that we start looking down, and not up, in order to better gauge future forecasts.

Precipitation and temperature are two main factors when it comes to weather forecasts. That's because precipitation originates in clouds, and clouds are formed from airborne water vapor. However, this water vapor comes from soil moisture that evaporates into the air. And soil moisture not only leads to cloud formation, but it also affects atmospheric temperatures.

So surprisingly, better understanding the weather may simply require you to look beneath your feet.

"Better soil moisture observations lead to better land-atmosphere interaction in weather forecasting models and ultimately to a better prediction of temperature and precipitation," Michael Ek of the NOAA said in a news release. "Weather models need good initial observations of the land surface, or you're starting from the wrong place."

That's exactly the idea behind the Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission (SMAP), which aims to obtain better soil moisture observations, as the name implies. Scheduled to launch today, Jan. 29, SMAP will collect the most accurate and highest-resolution soil moisture measurements ever made from a satellite, covering the entire globe in just two to three days.

And not only will SMAP possibly lead to better weather predictions, but it will also help improve our understanding of Earth's water and carbon cycles, as well as management of water resources.

Ek and his colleagues are quick to note that weather forecasts won't miraculously improve the moment SMAP starts collecting data. Since global soil moisture measurements on this scale have never before been conducted, existing mathematical models used in weather forecasting are not configured to include them directly. According to the research team, it will take some time before they figure out how to incorporate soil moisture into forecasts.

"The numerical weather prediction centers are adapting to the new availability of soil moisture information and thinking of ways they can exploit it," added scientist Wade Crow, a member of the SMAP team. "It will be really exciting to see what they find."

For more information about SMAP, visit its website here.

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