Tropical Forests Less Likely to Lose Plant Cover due to Global Warming

Tropical forests won't lose as many plants due to global warming as were projected by previous research, says a new study. Researchers say that tropical forests are more resilient to global warming than previously thought.

The study team was led by Dr. Chris Huntingford from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology in the U.K. Researchers from the U.S., Australia and Brazil also contributed to the study.

The research team used computer models to see how the rise of greenhouse gases and subsequent change in temperatures across the world would affect the vegetation in tropical forests. The computer simulations were tested for forests in Americas, Asia and Africa. Researchers found that tropical forests in all regions, except the Americas, were extremely resilient to global temperatures and were less likely to lose vegetation. The research team found plant loss in only one of the 22 computer models and only in the regions of the Americas.

"The big surprise in our analysis is that uncertainties in ecological models of the rainforest are significantly larger than uncertainties from differences in climate projections. Despite this we conclude that based on current knowledge of expected climate change and ecological response, there is evidence of forest resilience for the Americas (Amazonia and Central America), Africa and Asia," said Dr. Chris Huntingford, from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology in the U.K. and lead author of the study.

The study is published in the journal Nature Geoscience.

A recent study showed that arctic seasons and vegetation have already changed and have started resembling those found in the South. The change has been attributed to change in global temperatures.

Previous research has suggested that the Amazonian forests are vulnerable to global climate change caused by an increase in greenhouse gases.

"Building on this study, one of the big challenges that remains is to include, in Earth system models, a full representation of thermal acclimation and adaptation of the rainforest to warming," said Dr. Lina Mercado from the University of Exeter and the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and co-author of the study.