The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has started off unusually quiet, leaving meteorologists guessing on the factors behind this phenomenon.
Typically, by this time in the season, several tropical storms or hurricanes have already formed. However, this year, warm sea surface temperatures and a prevailing El Niño pattern have created a complex environment, suppressing cyclone development. While warm waters generally fuel storms, El Niño's increased wind shear affects their formation.
El Niño and Sahara Affecting Hurricane Season
(Photo : NWS Live Hurricane Tracker via NOAA NESDIS)
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One of the primary reasons for the quiet conditions is the influence of El Niño, which is creating increased wind shear across the Atlantic. Wind shear refers to the variation in wind speed and direction with altitude, which can disrupt the formation of hurricanes by tearing apart developing storms before they have a chance to intensify.
Combined with the cooler sea surface temperatures near the African coast, this wind shear has limited the number of tropical storms.
Another significant factor has been the presence of Saharan dust, which has created dry air conditions in the region. The Saharan dust layer reduces moisture, making it more difficult for storms to form and develop into cyclones. This dust is often prevalent early in the season, but its persistence has contributed to a longer-than-expected lull in activity.
What to Expect Going Forward
Despite the slow start, experts caution that the hurricane season is far from over. Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane specialist from Colorado State University, notes that while activity is currently below normal, there is still a chance for more storms as conditions become more favorable later in September.
Historically, the peak of the season occurs in mid-September, and meteorologists warn that even one major hurricane can cause widespread damage.
As the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a climate cycle that impacts weather patterns, moves into the region, conditions for storm development may improve. While the start of the 2024 season has been quieter than expected, there is still time for the Atlantic to see an uptick in activity before the season ends in November
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