A new study says that contrary to the general belief, melting sea ice will not make it any easier to navigate through the legendary Northwest Passage.
Climate change is not giving easier access to the passage, which serves as a shortcut between Europe and Asia.
According to researchers, the melting polar cap is causing older, thicker ice to drift southward into the passage and reinforce choke points, thereby making navigation more hazardous.
A Century-Old Dream Versus Modern-Day Realities (Photo : OLIVIER MORIN/AFP via Getty Images)
A navigable Northwest Passage has fired the imagination of explorers for several centuries, promising to bring about a huge reduction in distance for ships moving between Europe and Asia, with a consequent recast of global trade flows. The actual situation seems to be complex.
The number of ships trying to pass via this remote seaway north of Canada increases with the thawing of the polar ice.
The study, however, reveals that the shipping season in Northwest Passage has become shorter from 2007 to 2021 due to the influx of more dangerous ice.
Implications for Future Arctic Expeditions
The results of this study have huge implications for future expeditions and commerce in the Arctic.
While the general decline of sea ice might be giving new opportunities for trade and exploration, this increase in older, thicker ice indicates a higher risk for ships.
This challenges an increasingly common belief that the Northwest Passage could soon provide a viable alternative shipping route.
The bottom line of the research is the realization of the unpredictability of climate change and its effects on Arctic navigation.
Still, there is an attraction to this Northwest Passage, but sailors and traders are to fight their way through both the physical difficulties of the Arctic as well as the changing environment that seems to mold the legendary route.
What are the specific dangers posed by older ice in the Northwest Passage?
Older, thicker ice that drifts into the Northwest Passage has specific risks all its own to navigation.
This means an increased risk of impact with very dense and hard ice, which is very damaging to ships, and increased navigation challenges, as large icebergs or sea ice, can block passage and trap ships inside for a very long time.
This is accompanied by equally foul weather conditions, including strong gale-force winds and poor visibility.
In such dire situations, the thick ice hampers rescue efforts, and stranded vessels are forced to be on their own for a longer time before assistance can be rendered.
Additionally, the older ice has been blamed for shortening the shipping season since it limits the duration that the waters are navigable.
These factors thus combine to make the Northwest Passage frighteningly unpredictable for mariners, respite the general diminution of sea ice.
How can governments and shipping companies adapt to these changing conditions?
Several measures that governments and shipping companies can take to adapt to the changing conditions of Arctic navigation are the improvement of maritime infrastructure, which also includes port development and provision of navigational aids, and the second one is the improvement in search and rescue capabilities.
The investment in icebreaker vessels is driven by requirements to support navigation and emergency response.
State-of-the-art navigation systems, equipped with real-time sea-ice monitoring and forecasting, are very helpful in route planning and risk assessment.
The ability to comply with international regulations outlined in the Polar Code from the International Maritime Organization confers safe and environmentally responsible operations.
Economic, environmental, and safety risks at a fully government-wide level can help drive investment decisions and look for gaps in infrastructure.
To that effect, international cooperation is essential to react to common challenges and developing harmonized approaches to navigation in the Arctic.
Specialized training of crews to navigate polar conditions as well as deal with emergencies is also very vital.
Last but certainly not least in the list are shipping strategies that could be adopted whereby the shipping will be seasonal as well as assigned to other routes when it risks are so high to use the Northwest Passage.