A new analysis finds that the likelihood of a disastrous May heat wave in Mexico, Central America, and the southern United States was 35 times higher due to human-caused climate change.
It also revealed that, in the upcoming decades, heat waves are expected to occur far more frequently.
Rapid Attribution Study
The analysis comes from a research group called World Weather Attribution. They conduct "rapid attribution" studies, which are a means of rapidly estimating the extent to which human activities like burning fossil fuels for energy have contributed to or exacerbated climate change. Examples of these activities include heat waves and floods.
The study examined the hottest five days and five nights in a row as well as a wide region of the continent, including southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and Honduras.
These five days and nights fell on June 3-7 and June 5-9, respectively, for the majority of the area; however, in a few locations, the hottest part of the day began on May 26.
For instance, on June 4, San Angelo, Texas, recorded a record-breaking 111 degrees, or 43.8 degrees Celsius. At Corpus Christi airport, the nighttime temperature never fell below 80 degrees (26.7 degrees Celsius) between June 2 and June 6. This was a record for each night, and there were two days when the thermometer never fell below 85 degrees (29.4 degrees Celsius).
The National Center for Environmental Information reports that between June 1 and June 15, approximately 1,800 nighttime high temperature records were reached and over 1,200 daytime high temperature records were tied or broken in the US.
The attribution team compared current conditions to those of previous heat waves by utilizing both historical and current temperature data. They then calculated the extent to which global warming contributed to the 2024 heat wave using the widely accepted scientific method of comparing computer models of an imaginary world free of human-caused climate change to the actual world.
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Every 15 Years
In the current climate, a heat wave of this kind is predicted to occur every 15 years, and maybe more frequently if global warming continues. Based on the calculations, that are equivalent to once every 60 years if the planet continued to have the same climate as it did in 2000.
Thus, a person living in regions of Central America, Mexico, and the southern United States should anticipate experiencing heat waves five to six times in their lifetime, or possibly more frequently as a result of climate change.
The possibility that young people in the Americas may be doomed to endure climate extremes for the remainder of their lives is a sobering one, as evidenced by mounting climate research.
"We'll never know the world that we knew in our childhood, where access to the outdoors didn't come with a fatal warning or a caution, which is going to become more and more of the norm," said Bushra Asghar, a Montreal-based youth climate organizer.
The report recommends that cities update their urban planning, install heat warning systems, enact legislation protecting outdoor workers, and ensure consistent energy in order to be ready for the inevitable return of extreme heat.
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