The megadrought is only temporarily being alleviated by the recent heavy rains and wet weather, experts are warning the public, and overestimating the situation could make the US drought worse.
Experts say that if there's another decade or two of drought, the effects on the nation could be catastrophic. The western region of the United States is currently suffering from a protracted megadrought that is significantly straining the region's water resources.
Extreme Drought, Heavy Rainfall
According to the most recent numbers from the US Drought Monitor, 65% of the US mainland is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, with Utah, Nebraska, Oregon, Kansas, and Oklahoma among the hardest-hit states and regions experiencing "extreme drought" conditions.
Rick Relyea, the Darrin Fresh Water Institute at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute director, said that in the last 1,200 years, nothing of this severity has ever happened.
According to Newsweek, Over 40% of the state of California is still regarded as being under "severe" drought, and even though the recent heavy rains have helped to lessen the drought in some areas, such as California, much more precipitation will be required over time to restock reservoirs and groundwater stores.
Megadrought, Winter Precipitation, and Overestimation
The Colorado River, which provides water to people from Wyoming to Mexico in a region known as the Colorado River Basin, depends on snowfall in the Rockies, where more than two-thirds of the river's length originates. Even though this year's snowfall totals are significantly above average, according to climatologists, the winter is far from over and weather conditions could shift, resulting in less precipitation.
Brad Udall, a Colorado State University water and climate researcher, warns that making an early prediction on this is dangerous. Exercising caution is still better than getting into trouble for overestimating the amount of precipitation.
Due to climate change and a 23-year "megadrought" that has made the area the driest it has been in 1,800 years, the Colorado River is in crisis, creating a supply-demand imbalance for a multibillion-dollar agricultural sector and large cities that depend on the river's water, WJCT News reports.
Megadrought and Water Supply
Due to increased demand from a growing population and other uses like agriculture combined with climate change, the megadrought is affecting drinking water shortages, reductions in water quality, and less water available for industries, crops, and households, experts told Newsweek.
Relyea said that supply and demand are always in balance concerning water availability. Rapid urbanization in the western US has outpaced reliable water supply, and the megadrought has reduced water availability even as demand has increased. The dry weather in many areas of the western United States is largely due to climate change, which is being fueled by human activity.
According to David Feldman, a University of California researcher, the entire region is severely affected, with varying degrees of water stress in various locations, including smaller rural communities, others that are less affected, and still others that lack stable water supplies.
Predicting the Amount of Rain and Snow
Relyea said that it is challenging to forecast future snowfall and rainfall, and it is uncertain when the current megadrought will end because previous megadroughts have typically lasted 20-30 years.
He said that The megadrought may last for several more years, leading to widespread water shortages, according to some research. With continued climate change, less frequent but more severe rain and snow events that might cause flash flooding could be expected.
According to the models used in the Nature Climate Change paper, there is a good chance that the megadrought will last until 2030.
Jonathan Deason, the Environmental & Energy Management Institute co-director at George Washington University, and a School of Engineering and Applied Science professor, told Newsweek that Relief is not anticipated anytime soon because even when dry conditions subside, it will take many years of above-average precipitation to see a significant recovery.
Up to 2 Decades of Drought and 2071 Population Growth Trend
According to a 2019 study published in the journal Earth's Future, 204 of the freshwater basins in the US may not be able to supply all of the country's water needs by 2071 if no mitigation measures are taken. According to current indicators, the drought will likely continue to have an impact on the entire nation, both directly in some regions and indirectly through higher food prices.
According to Deason, 10 to 20 years of drought could have "catastrophic effects" like significant aquifer depletions, groundwater resource losses, land subsidence, harm to community infrastructure, and reduced groundwater storage capacity.
Over half of the US population would be directly affected by continued drought, and the entire US population would be affected either directly or indirectly, he continued, adding that it could result in many negative effects like crop failures, invasive species, wildfires, and inflationary pressures.
According to Feldman, there are reasons for optimism because water agencies are aware of the drought issue and are making preparations to lessen it by planning for at least 20 years and taking climate change into account.
He said the less-regulated uses for which there are already disputes over water rights in the west worry him the most; as there is less water available, disputes are more likely.
Megadrought and Mitigating Water Shortages
According to Feldman, mandated reductions during dry spells can conserve water, but a lot more must be done to address the effects of persistent drought, such as organized water allocation and enhanced use of water-conservation techniques.
Lawn watering may be prohibited, low-flow appliances may be retrofitted in homes, and irrigation systems and crops with lower water requirements may be used in agriculture.
Relyea said that another result of the drought will be a new wave of water-saving technologies.
Feldman said that During a prolonged drought, communities might have to import or share water supplies, and more aggressive wastewater recycling for agricultural irrigation and landscaping is required to conserve drinking water supplies.
He said that Climate models predict longer periods of drought interspersed with brief, intense bursts of heavy precipitation, necessitating more aggressive rainwater harvesting to capture and store for drier periods.
Although it is very costly, energy-intensive, and has some environmental impacts that must be mitigated, desalination is another available option, Newsweek reports.
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