A combination of extreme heat and drought is threatening 90% of the world's population, according to a new study. Researchers used climate simulations from a large model and new machine learning to determine its impact on a global scale, particularly causing potential socio-economic and ecological damage.
Compound Drought-Heatwave Events
PALM DESERT, CALIFORNIA - DECEMBER 07: The full moon rises beyond undeveloped desert on December 7, 2022 near Palm Desert, California. According to the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, a fourth consecutive year of drought is likely in California in spite of two recent storms which resulted in precipitation across much of the state.
The study was published in the journal Nature Sustainability on January 5 where researchers concluded future socio-ecosystem productivity worldwide are threatened by the said combination called "compound drought-heatwave events," also called as CDHW.
The new paper says CDHW events are one of the worst climate stressors hindering global sustainable development. While knowledge on extreme heat and drought as a separate phenomenon is growing, the physical mechanisms behind CDHW and its impacts on socio-ecosystem productivity remain poorly understood.
The new research, conducted by Oxford's School of Geography, said over 90% of the world's population is heading toward increased risks from this combination, which can potentially wide social inequalities and undermine the environment's ability reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere, as summarized by Phys.org.
In particular, the study asserts that the joint threats may cause severe socio-economic and ecological impacts as it has projected it would cause severe impacts on poorer people and rural areas. In terms of ecology, a prolonged increased temperature with dry conditions could destroy natural habitats of animals, both on land and sea.
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2022 European Heat Waves
In 2022, Europe was hit by widespread heat waves, causing wildfires and heat-related deaths in some countries, including in Spain and Portugal. The unprecedented extreme heat last year highlighted not only the existence of a climate crisis but also a warming planet brought by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuel burning.
Between June and August, temperatures reached nearly 40 degrees Celsius from Paris to London; with this, climate scientists from the World Weather Attribution group determined that the high temperatures would be "virtually impossible" without climate change, as cited by Reuters.
Summer heatwaves of 2022 in the UK, France, Germany, and Spain resulted in the deaths of more than 20,000 excess deaths, according to a report. The extreme weather event is being compared with the 2003 European heat wave which led to more than 70,000 excess deaths across the said continent, mainly in France.
Extreme Heat and Climate Change
In different parts of the world, hot days are getting hotter and are increasing in frequency, while we are experiencing fewer colder days. In the continental United States, record for daily high temperatures have transpired twice as often as record lows nationwide, an up from a near 1:1 ratio in the 1950s, the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES) reports.
In the Western US, intense heat waves are becoming more frequent, while typical heat waves are becoming more common. As reiterated by climate scientists from multiple research, climate-damaging greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane are accelerating the greenhouse effect which warms up the planet.
The C2ES stated if there is no significant action towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions, daily high and low temperatures will spike by at least 5 degrees Fahrenheit in most places by 2050, with a further increase of 10 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the 21st century.
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