The current low water levels in the Mississippi River are increasing supply costs and barge transport fees. However, farmers must put up with lowball offers for their goods.

Significant constraints in the supply chain across the midsection of the US could have far-reaching effects into the winter, beginning with farmers in the Plains and extending to the nation's overall economy.

Decline in Water Levels and Commerce

Low water levels in the Mississippi River, an important commercial waterway that has been suffering a steady decline in flow during the past few months because of a lack of rain, are aggravating the issue.

On Wednesday, October 12, a river gauge at Osceola, Arkansas, located 35 miles north of Memphis, Tennessee, recorded a water level that was 4.8% lower than what has been considered "low stage" there since records began in 1927.

Because of the low water levels earlier in the month, at least eight barges ran aground.

As the water level continues to drop, the risk of barges becoming stuck increases daily, placing more strain on the barge and shipping traffic that depends on the biggest river in the US for transportation.

Michael Steenhoek, the executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, said that it is a crucial component of the US economy as a whole, and this is especially true for agriculture.

90% of the nation's agricultural exports, in addition to 60% of all grain exports, 78% of exports of feed grains, soybeans, and livestock, and 92% of all grain exports take place on the Mississippi River.

Worst Timing

For farmers, there was no worse time for the drought and declining water levels to have occurred.

Paul Pastelok, a senior meteorologist from AccuWeather, said that the harvest season is currently in full swing, making this the busiest time of year for barge trafficking, the bulkiest mode of transportation for agricultural goods.

Pastelok said that if this is out of control, grains won't be able to reach the ports to be transported to other nations, which could harm farmers and the US economy as a whole.

Only a small portion of the average rainfall fell in the Mississippi River watershed from September 12 to October 12.

Memphis, Tennessee, did not receive a single millimeter of rain during this time.

According to Steenhoek, worries about the current state of affairs began to surface almost a year ago, during the winter of 2021to 2022, when there was a lack of snowfall throughout the Mississippi River basin.

Very Dry Summer in Montana

Steenhoek claimed that a significant portion of the water seen on the lower part of the Mississippi River originates as a snowflake in Montana.

It just kept getting worse, and the area experienced a dry summer, which contributed to the current predicament.

Steenhoek explained that due to the decreased shipping activity on the Mississippi River, demand for crops like corn and soybeans is far outpacing supply.

Inefficient, Expensive Transport

Barges can still travel down the river, but they might carry less cargo to stay afloat in the shallow water.

The shipping strategy is now, however, less effective, which ultimately results in higher costs.

Steenhoek explained that shippers are currently noticing a cost increase for barge freight of well over 100% compared to the same time last year.

These costs are now being mainly passed on to the farmer, which is something that frequently occurs in the agricultural sector and is undoubtedly happening right now.

This manifests itself in the lower price that is provided to those farmers at the point of sale.

Even though shipping has decreased significantly, it has not completely stopped.

According to the AP, the US Army Corps of Engineers now only moves 25 barges at a time instead of the usual 30 to 40 because of the extremely low water level.

In comparison to the previous five years, barge traffic has decreased by 39%.

Tyler Oxner, from the Arkansas Farm Bureau, said that rain must fall in the area to solve this problem, plain and simple.

The Mississippi's reduced flow has repercussions that extend to the travel sector, including Viking cruise ships.

Read also: Mississippi Governor, President Biden Declare State of Emergency Over Growing Jackson Water Crisis 

Winter is Not Yet Coming

According to Pastelok, the long-range forecast for the area does not appear to be particularly wet, so conditions on the Mississippi River may worsen before they improve.

Pastelok explained that this might continue throughout the winter and the first few days of spring.

The Mississippi River's tributaries from Ohio and Tennessee, which empty into it, are the only source of relief.

The area east of the Mississippi River may become wetter by mid-winter to late winter as a winter storm's path changes. However, farther west, there is currently a dry forecast for precipitation.

The majority of the Mississippi River Valley is expected to experience wet weather this winter, with snowfall expected across the northern Plains, according to AccuWeather's long-range forecasters.

These elements should reduce drought-related worries and raise the Mississippi River's water level, but it will take some time for this prediction to materialize.

Steenhoek said that with few signs of hope on the horizon, they are witnessing the situation worsen with each passing day.

There isn't much that can be done right now, he continued, AccuWeather reported.

Related article: Mississippi River Communities Are Threatened by the River's Alarmingly Low Water Level