Price increases might worsen if crop yields in Europe decline due to heatwaves. The impact of the Ukraine war on food security is expected to increase as the output of basics like corn is predicted to decrease by up to 9% from Spain to Hungary.
Heatwaves All Over Europe
Due to heatwaves and droughts, yields of important crops in Europe will be much lower this year, which will exacerbate the effects of the Ukraine war on food prices.
Due to the continent-wide heat wave, the EU predicts an 8% to 9% decrease in maize, sunflower, and soya bean production. Because Ukraine is a significant producer and Russia has restricted its exports, cooking oil and corn supplies were already under strain.
Large portions of Europe, including Spain, southern France, central and northern Italy, central Germany, northern Romania, and eastern Hungary, have experienced dryness and hot weather recently. While a few crops, such as sugar beet and potatoes, perform better than usual, total cereal yields are down approximately 2% from the five-year average.
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Direly Affecting Crops
The flowering stage for important crops coincided with heat stress and drought in many regions, according to the most recent monthly edition of the Mars Bulletin, which the EU's Joint Research Centre published this week. Additionally, many water reservoirs are at levels that are insufficient to meet irrigation demand.
Although a tenuous agreement has been struck about certain exports, it should be possible for at least part of Ukraine's crops to reach international markets. Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, has refused to allow the grain and other supplies from Ukraine.
The price of gasoline and fertilizer, two crucial farming inputs, has increased as a result of the conflict in Ukraine, further driving up the cost of food. The war, together with the effects of heat and heat exhaustion on Ukraine, prohibits exporting grain, maize, sunflowers, and other already-harvested commodities. This will likely significantly influence future harvests since farmers won't be able to sow their fields properly.
Potential Crisis
Due to factors like increased demand, the effects of the climate crisis, the Ukraine war, the aftermath of the Covid-19 outbreak, and people in many nations using up their food stores, food prices have been rising globally.
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How Heat Affects Crops
Even brief periods of high temperatures impact crop development, especially for temperate crops like wheat. High air temperature inhibits the growth of shoots, which inhibits the growth of roots. A high soil temperature is more critical because serious root injury significantly decreases shoot growth.
Because of the higher minimum temperatures, the impacts of increasing temperature have a greater influence on grain production than on vegetative development. Senescence occurs at a higher rate due to these consequences, making it harder for the crop to fill its grain or fruit effectively.
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