In a recent study done by experts at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, numerous forecasts of our natural climate future may be too susceptible to Arctic ice loss due to sudden changes in ocean circulation.
According to climate experts, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (or AMOC) is one of the most significant tipping points on the path to a global climate calamity.
The Atlantic Ocean current functions as a conveyor belt, transporting warm tropical surface water north and colder, denser subsurface water south.
Melting arctic ice caps
Water heated at the equator moves north at the surface of the ocean into frigid, high latitudes in the North Atlantic, where it cools, as per UCAR.
It gets thicker as it cools, and because cold water is denser than warm water, it sinks to the deep ocean, where it returns to the south.
More warm surface water rushes in to fill the void, cools, sinks, and the cycle repeats.
Climate change is melting Arctic sea ice, according to new studies.
Freshwater is added to the saltwater of the Arctic Ocean, which flows into the North Atlantic when the ice melts.
The addition of freshwater reduces the density of seawater, over the last few decades, the North Atlantic has gotten fresher as a result of this.
"We've been trained to think of it as a conveyor belt that closes down when freshwater gets in from glacier melt," says Feng He, an associate scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Center Madison's for Climatic Research, as per ScienceDaily.
Furthermore, he claimed that academics are changing their awareness of the relationship between AMOC and freshwater through melted polar ice, based on an earlier study.
A halted AMOC has already followed abrupt climatic events like the Bolling-Allerod warming, a 14,500-year-old global temperature increase.
He was able to replicate the incident using a warming trend he developed while a doctoral student at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 2009.
He and Oregon State University paleoclimatologist Peter Clark present a new model simulation that fits the temperature of the previous 10,000 years in a paper published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change.
They achieved so by removing the trigger that most scientists believe causes the AMOC to halt or shut down.
Ice cover in the Arctic Ocean and the Greenland Ice Cap melt as the Earth's surface warms, sending freshwater into the ocean.
Freshwater input disturbs density differences in the North Atlantic, causing the AMOC's north-bound water to dip and shift south, according to scientists.
What happens if ocean currents stopped?
Despite the fact that temperature increase is disrupting ocean currents, halted or slow current flow in the North Atlantic would result in the regional cold in Western Europe and North America.
The warmth from the tropics is carried up to these locations by ocean currents, which would no longer be the case.
If the tides fully stopped, Europe's average temperature would drop 5 to 10 degrees Celsius. There will also be consequences for the region's fisheries and storms.
The North Atlantic currents are part of a worldwide pattern known as thermohaline circulation, also known as the global ocean conveyor.
If they do stop, it will not be the first time the global ocean conveyor has come to a standstill.
It has shut down multiple times in the past, according to sedimentary rocks and ice cores, resulting in climatic shifts.
One of the most well-known, known as the Younger Dryas Event, occurred around 12,700 years ago and caused temperatures in the region to drop by roughly 5 degrees Celsius.
Related article: Melting Permafrost Leaves 90ft Deep Craters Beneath the Arctic Seafloor