Two new studies led by a North Carolina State University researcher provide a glimpse into what electricity consumers on the West Coast might face in two future scenarios: one in which excessive heat due to climate change puts a strain on power supplies, and another in which the grid shifts to renewable energy while the climate follows historical patterns.
They discovered that electricity prices and dependability are still subject to harsh weather in both instances.
"The effects of climate change and extreme weather events on the grid, most notably drought and heat waves," said Jordan Kern, an associate professor of forestry and environmental resources at NC State. "Even as the West Coast grid transitions from fossil fuels to wind and solar, extreme weather events will continue to influence system resilience and electricity prices."
The two assessments published in the journal Earth's Future forecast future electricity supply and demand under different scenarios.
First Study
In the first study, researchers utilized computer models to evaluate the effects of climate change on California's and the Pacific Northwest's present electricity grids. They examined the grid's pricing and dependability under 11 various climate scenarios from 2030 to 2060, using multiple scientific models to see how the climate would change under a "worst-case scenario" of fossil fuel emissions and a less severe scenario.
High Likelihood
The researchers discovered a higher likelihood of power outages in the summer and early fall, owing to excessive heat in California, which generates a surge in demand for electricity as people try to cool their houses. They predicted shortfalls in all but one scenario, in which climate change impaired electricity output in both regions at the same time.
They did say, though, that these power outages would be unusual. The worst-case scenario included 72 hours of West Coast-wide power outages spread out over 31 years.
The price and supply of power in the Pacific Northwest would be affected by the extreme heat in California. The regions have always shared power.
Climate Change
They also discovered that climate change might directly influence the Pacific Northwest by restricting hydropower supply, which is energy generated by water. Because snow acts as a storage medium, variations in snow or snowmelt time affect the amount of electricity access in the summer.
Climate change would greatly impact the Pacific Northwest in the late summer or early fall when the grid is already stressed. Even slight reductions in streamflow induced by climate change in September, along with increased summer power consumption, would be enough to produce additional power shortages in the Pacific Northwest. However, they predicted that West Coast-wide shortfalls owing to climate impacts on the Pacific Northwest alone would be uncommon.
In addition to dependability concerns, the researchers discovered that climate change would raise the cost of electricity. They projected more hours in which the wholesale price of energy hits the ceiling of $1,000 megawatts per hour in California, especially in late summer, under the worst-case scenario when climate change affects power supply and demand in California and the Pacific Northwest. Climate change in California would have a huge influence on Pacific Northwest pricing.
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Second Study
In the second study, researchers looked at the cost of electricity in 2050 with more renewable energy sources added to the system, assuming that natural gas power plants would still be available as a backup. They analyzed five scenarios for each market: two that altered the mix of solar and wind by cost; one with additional batteries installed to store electricity; one in which more people are adopting electric vehicles; and the status quo trend. They assessed the cost of electricity in these different systems under 100 representative years of both standard and extreme weather events that could occur under historical climate conditions - without additional climate warming.
With Renewables
Even with renewables, they discovered that excessive heat and drought would drive price extremes - with "good" years having the lowest costs due to moderate temperatures and abundant streamflow and "bad" years having the highest prices due to extreme heat or drought.
The future scenario with more wind energy has the lowest prices in California, followed by solar. The scenarios with the most wind and solar power had the lowest pricing in the Pacific Northwest. Shortages in supply would be more common along the line with the highest demand for electric cars.
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