As Global Temperature Rises, Europe Will Be Warmer than Global Average

If global surface temperatures rise to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the majority of Europe will experience higher levels of global warming than other places around the globe, according to a new study.

Researchers from France's Laboratory for Climate Sciences and the Environment (LSCE) report in the journal Environmental Research Letters that of global average temperature rises as predicted, northern and eastern Europe will have warmer winters and southern Europe will have a warmer summer, when compared to global temperature averages.

In the summertime, the daily maximum temperature could increase by as much as 4 degrees C in southeastern Europe, the researchers report, adding that along the Iberian Peninsula, too, summertime temperatures in one of Europe warmest regions will get much warmer with daily high temperatures in excess of 40 degrees C.

"The 2 degree C warming target has mainly been decided among nations as a limit not to exceed in order to avoid possibly dangerous climate change. However, the consequences of such a warming, at the scale of a continent like Europe, have not yet been quantified," said lead study author Robert Vautard from the LSCE.

"We find that, even for such an ambitious target as 2 degrees C, changes in European climate are significant and will lead to significant impacts," he said.

Rising global temperatures will have a pronounced wintertime effect as well, the researchers said.

In central and northern Europe, the researchers report there will be an increase in precipitation in winter and that "most of the continent will experience an increase in instances of extreme precipitation, increasing the flood risks which are already having significant economic consequences."

Southern Europe, however, is an exception, the researchers said, noting that it will get less precipitation as the average temperature rises.

Additionally, the UK is predicted to have lower relative warming compared to other parts of Europe. 

The researchers arrived at their predictions by synthesizing 15 regional climate models to simulate climate change conditions under what's known as the A1B scenario, which supposes rapid growth and balanced energy policy.