Chicago sees below-zero temperatures and low snowfall, according to the 2023-2024 winter forecast.
The 2023-2024 Chicago winter forecast mirrors the past season, with sub-zero temperatures and scant snowfall. This resemblance is partly attributed to a strengthened El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. As the days grow shorter, Chicagoans can anticipate a winter akin to the previous one. Meteorological winter commences on December 1, followed by astronomical winter on December 21 at 9:27 PM CST, marking the latest start since 2019. Prepare for familiar cold and limited snowfall as we head into the upcoming winter season.
It's a Winter Season Replay: Below Zero
Winter began with frigid Arctic air sweeping into Chicago, plummeting temperatures below zero for over 24 hours. The city recorded its coldest temperature since January 31, 2019, a high of 1 degree Fahrenheit below zero on December 23, 2023, and a record-breaking low of 8 degrees below zero. Additionally, on the same day, the daylight temperature fell to a bone-chilling 43 degrees below zero.
The current winter was one of the least snowy winter seasons for Chicago, despite the early cold snap, with only 20.2 inches of snowfall, a substantial decrease from the 38.4-inch historical norm. It was the 11th least snowy winter on record dating back to the 1880s, with only 19.8 inches of snow falling during the entire season.
Chicago 2023-2024 Winter Forecast
Paul Pastelok, the long-range forecaster for AccuWeather, predicts that the Midwest will have another winter with below-average snowfall. Chicago is projected to receive 20 to 30 inches of snow, which is a modest increase over the 20.2 inches of snowfall from the previous year, and snowfall is expected on 16 to 22 days rather than 24 days as it was in 2016.
The prime period for accumulating snow is anticipated to be in the latter part of the season, particularly in February, which Pastelok believes could be an "active and intense" month across the United States.
Pastelok's predictions include a mild December with only brief chilly periods, possibly extending into a largely mild and dry January for the Midwest and Chicago. However, in February, there is a potential for the polar vortex to move southward, resulting in the season's lowest temperatures.
Despite this February chill, the overall winter is expected to be relatively mild. AccuWeather's long-range forecast suggests temperatures running 2-3 degrees above historical averages in Chicago, akin to the 3.6-degree Fahrenheit surplus observed in the previous winter.
The El Niño Effect
This year's early development of El Niño is set to exert a significant influence on Midwest winter weather. El Niño, characterized by warm waters near the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, can reshape the jet stream, leading to distinct winter weather patterns. Typically, El Niño results in reduced snowfall across the Great Lakes and above-average air temperatures.
Nevertheless, ski enthusiasts can anticipate decent conditions when hitting the slopes in the Midwest. While resorts may rely on artificial snowmaking due to the expected limited natural snow, there should be enough cold air to support this process, ensuring fair to good skiing conditions.
Related Article: Central US: More Drenching Rains, First Round Of Winter Forecasted