As it moves through the Caribbean Sea, Tropical Depression Nine could pose a serious hurricane threat to the Southeast US and northwest Caribbean the following week. This will include Florida, which will have a stormy weekend.
The tracking of this most recent system by experts is still in its very early stages. Experts are more certain about some aspects of the forecast than others, which is characteristic for tropical forecasting this far in advance.
From Tropical Depression to Serious Hurricane Threat
In the central Caribbean Sea, Tropical Depression Nine is currently moving west-northwest.
It is still struggling with wind shear but on Friday morning it organized enough to be classified as a tropical depression.
The main risk from this system for Bonaire, Aruba, and Curacao right now is heavy rain. In these areas, mudslides and flash flooding are potential hazards.
Hermine or Ian?
It is anticipated that the system will develop into a tropical storm in the afternoon or tonight.
Depending on whether it or another system developing in the far eastern Atlantic turns into a tropical storm first, it would either be called Hermine or Ian.
The National Hurricane Center predicts that this tropical storm will develop into a hurricane in the northwest area of the Caribbean by this coming weekend or early next week. During that time, rapid intensification-defined as an increase in wind speed of at least 35 mph in less than 24 hours-is possible.
By the following Tuesday or Wednesday, it could be anywhere from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to close to the Florida Peninsula as a Category 3 hurricane or possibly stronger.
The system is anticipated to strengthen over the next few days as a result of lower wind shear and an abundance of warm, deep water in the Caribbean Sea.
Before it might approach the eastern Gulf of Mexico or areas of Florida early next week, Land interaction with Cuba could be a minor impediment to its development.
As previously mentioned, there is currently a threat of heavy rain for Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Interests in Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands should keep a close eye on this system's forecast.
Starting this weekend, flash flooding rain may at least be a problem in these areas. Depending on the precise track and power of this system, tropical storm or possibly hurricane conditions could also develop.
Landfall Mainland US Next Week
Unlike hurricanes Fiona and Earl, this system poses a serious threat to the US mainland the following week due to forecast steering winds.
Most computer forecast models predict that the system will be located between the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida, possibly even off Florida's Atlantic coast, between Tuesday and Wednesday. As it passes by these regions, it might be a hurricane.
Accordingly, South Florida will continue to experience stormy weather this weekend due to a stalled front, and bands of heavier rain that are well in advance of the system may hit southern Florida as early as Monday.
The system will either then move inland over the Southeast of the United States or it may track close to or along portions of the Eastern Seaboard later on in the coming week.
It's far too early to predict where this system will ultimately land, but late next week there may be wind, flooding rain, and other effects extending into other parts of the East, The Weather Channel reports.
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